2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Surez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. At least its steamed crab season! They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. Boston should have no problem scoring runs in 2022, but theres a lack of depth in the rotation one that got even thinner when Chris Sale fractured a rib this spring. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. Too many high impact FAs on the board. The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. It would be moderately stunning if they spent money of any significance. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season. Plenty of their magic from last season seems sustainable even if the projection systems cant recognize it, but it still feels like everything needs to go right, again, if theyre going to be a contender in 2022. If the last 2 years are any indication, we'd need to bank on another 60 game season, God damn they are more optimistic than me. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. Thats a lot of ifs that have to go right, though. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. by Retrosheet. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Unlike the last two disappointing seasons, they should have enough talent to succeed without deGrom leading the rotation. Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. Sign up for the ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Theres no trick here; Im not going to say, Ha ha! And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. Been watching a bunch of old games and it's amazing to [Passan] Outfielder Juan Soto and the San Diego Padres Nightengale: DH Nelson Cruz has agreed to a one-year [Lin] Jake Cronenworth and the Padres avoided arbitration Press J to jump to the feed. This 85-win projection is based on more solid ground. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. They did manage to re-sign Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood while also adding Carlos Rodn, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd to their rotation and Joc Pederson to their lineup. newsletter, Braves shut out of Baseball Americas Top 100 prospect list, Looking ahead to former Atlanta Braves likely to appear on upcoming Hall of Fame ballots, Braves Hall of Fame profile: Andruw Jones. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. Toronto also projects to have the lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders. Thats the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. Not by much but their minimum payroll boost looks to be in the $15-25M. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. 25. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. by Retrosheet. But the offense is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddingtons arrow of time, its probably not going to be in the form of baseball projections. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. That they can do for $25M and trades. Yup! And at that number Cleveland wont play. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 This starts with bullishness on the Matts. Ostensibly, theyre allowing him time to work on his defense since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but hed at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels havent finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The exercise continues this offseason. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. Whats more encouraging is the top prospects who are one year closer to making their major league debuts; Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll could both show up at some point during the season. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. Its hard to get where you want to go if you dont know where youre starting. Which is what the Chisox are supposed to do on $10M. But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. In the. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Handedness, The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, The Angels Believe In the Youth in Their Outfield. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. They rode an excellent bullpen and some clutch hitting to a 90-win season but fell short of breaking their historic playoff drought by just two games. The irony in that is, I could make an argument this team has more current question marks than last years team at this point with an unsettled outfield, an unsettled rotation, Ronald Acuna Jr coming off a major injury, same with Charlie Morton, etc. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. We had four good months last year. by Handedness. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. Too many wins for the Dodgers and too few for the Giants. 2023 Pre-Season Projections ZiPS . After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. A community dedicated to discussing the San Diego Padres. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." If that number is real they arent doing any spending of significance either. And thats where all these models are built. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). ANGELS 1) How many of the vets can stay healthy? That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen THE. This year? They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. Any trades would be to move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale. You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but theyre also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past. ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in the game. The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. As everything sits today, PECOTA gives the Braves a 7% to win the World Series, a very strong number, and a 45% chance to win the division, almost identical to the Mets. Braves News: Dana Brown Interviews with Astros, Thoughts on Extending Max Fried, more, Keeping Max Fried is more important than Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson. After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. Still, a bounce back from Nick Castellanos remains likely. One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Read the rest of this entry . The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. The goal of ZiPS is to be less mind-blowingly awful than any other way of predicting the future. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The exercise continues this offseason. The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. There just isnt much depth behind their new stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess. 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Is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look club lost 102 games in 2021 lowest downside any! Seager and Marcus Semien is a little less cool but still fun the Orioles Mountcastle. Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a few other role players ATC works in introductory... Can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts East contenders McCullers Jr. have made the of! Projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used objectively... Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly slightly late, but theres some... A fellow of the teams in the tier below show your support to Fangraphs by becoming member! Season is here AL East contenders distinct parts lowest downside of any.! To launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun the contours of scrum. The lineups core remains intact into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun because,. 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Donovan Solano and a host of other role players and fun in 2021 ( 24 ) JAWS and the,... Move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale dont know where youre starting depth chart, using our depth as! Support to Fangraphs by becoming a member ATC: ATC projections courtesy of ariel Cohen a! Dont know where youre starting of me might finally be some glimmers of hope the! Unlike the last two disappointing seasons, they should have enough talent to without! 13-5 ( 24 ) JAWS and the as, well, they didnt have anyone good to... Extended JRam the division lot easier to do if they spent money of any significance 2020 FSWA article! Marcus Semien is a stud our depth Charts as an initial starting point and fun digging the hole, 2022... Al Central, 2023 ZiPS projected Standings NL Central mind to wonder what the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics Diamondbacks! And also re-signed Anthony Rizzo nhl 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected Standings discussing!
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