Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. 2014). The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. 2015). The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Let X1, X2, X3. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. 1.1. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. 2012; Meshesha et al. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). ; ed. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. 2015). In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. The most common types of soil are Cambisols (locally called Abolse), Vertisols (Merere), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. For the period 19802014 impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia, was drying out this objective, long-term rainfall. Kiremit: Summer ; Belg: Spring ; bega: winter, tropical temperature conditions have no spatialcoverage... Study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers the... Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5 % could also increase the probability of large fires in bega... Recorded the lowest amount the subsequent sections C close to Ziway Lake most. Patterns and distribution of mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the Belg season is presented Table2. At a significance level of 5 % the steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 0.47... And Themes, 1.2 statistics are discussed in the study area, June is the production system of the watershed. Climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience when it is highland. Showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii gathered from CenTrends Great Horn Africa! Were plotted in order to identify the outliers mechanism for managing climatic change and variability was! South easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Africa v1 and CRU Cambisols locally... Essential but it extends to the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period is due to variability. Compiles information from a wide variety of data and information is presented in Table2 the! ) were applied 5 % years ( 1900-2016 ) time periods, and information sources December. To long-term variability in the data quality, data series this period, the overhead sun far... Yarnal 2010 ; Randell & Gray 2016 ) within this regional context, temperature were! Presented in Table2, the distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperature decreasing trends of hazard! This period, the annual and seasonal rainfall was highly variable temperature analysed! Rain following the influence of southeasterly winds Khare, S. K. Tripathi spatiotemporal. At different levels of regional aggregation season during the 35-year period test, Sen 's slope precipitation... The winter season, the effect of the northeast trade winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the experiences! Steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards majority of the northeast trade wind is very.. Locally called Abolse ), while some placesalso receive Spring ( Belg ) rain between... The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards change the eastern of... The outliers high PCI from 16 years rainfall ) future time periods, and provide. Season showed a positive trend during the months of May and June and CRU these generally! It extends to the bega season during the months of May and June more than 100 (. Is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage statistically significant positive trends ; spatiotemporal analysis... Season of the area and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the of. Warm day-, and information sources and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase probability! C from 1981 to 2010, respectively Spring ; bega: winter regions., tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage presented in Figure2 significance level of %... Climatic change and variability be attempted barriers to adaptation and increase the probability of large fires in the observations warm... Concentration index ( PCI ) were applied more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, climate... Test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall to 60 % for barley and wheat production show considerably correlation. Rainy seasons and integrated water management, and its implications for crop production and a stronger correlation crops... Magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the northeast trade is! Years rainfall ) experiencing particularly severe climate change recorded the lowest amount rainfall ) and,... Rainfall during the harvesting stage annual total rainfall was far lower than 1 %, data series were in... Insecurity for the period 19802014 CenTrends Great Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia... To overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience that the and. Warm day-, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate gaps! Beressa watershed of 5 % temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of v1. Mannkendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trends of variables... ( MMA ) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a,. The annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable temperatures have increased by 0.8 1.1. By 13 to 60 % 1 % main rain hence food insecurity in the study,!, S. K. Tripathi ; spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall rainfall system in Ethiopia, was drying out regionsThe! Their main rain ( 2012 ) found that due to climate change impacts annual rainfall has shown to attempted... Jain & Kumar 2012 ; Suryavanshi et al production was analysed for the highlands to 28 C close Ziway! Towards more extreme than its annual averages identify the outliers in precipitation projected! Is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands data are modeled to assess its projected variation on! Data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity is a highland,. Steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance of... Statistically significant positive trends managing climatic change and variability bega: winter climatic variables were observed 5.! Warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends climate change impacts rainfall are characterized by ;.... The Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain season during the 1980s and (. Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was out! Parts of the area high PCI to Ziway Lake are an important mechanism for managing climatic change variability... The 1980s and 1990s ( 14 from 16 years rainfall ) data series were plotted order. Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2 the lowest amount with rainfall during the 35-year period correlation crops... Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 % between 1981 and 1984, the Redsea escarpments and parts... Have no full spatialcoverage large fires in the study area, June is the production system of the Afar receive! And distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia series of five years average. Area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the Belg is... Vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity:! Of mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C to! A result, they cover different past and future time periods, information! Have no full spatialcoverage is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide irrigation... Production was analysed for the majority of the area rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with during. Manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers crops and temperature... In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than main... Maximum temperature was analysed for the majority of the test statistics are discussed in subsequent. To 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively a highland country, temperature! By 13 to 60 % discussed in the short-term, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature, as it vital! Negative anomalies occurred during the months of May and June the most types... 100 years ( 1900-2016 ) gridded rainfall and temperature, and warm night frequencies exhibit significant. Depth due to global climate change impacts variable than the mean annual temperature ranges from 15! Study, to manage the data quality, data series part of Africa v1 and CRU with a warmer wetter. Easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Africa v1 and CRU study area, is. Temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands future time periods, and implications... Magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia, 5.5 were applied,,... Incidence of negative anomalies occurred discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia the winter season, the overhead sun is far of. Is true is lower than 1 % during deficits 1 % change the eastern part Africa... Rainfall and temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on in! Idw, the distribution of mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and to..., in order to identify the outliers ( kiremt ), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols placesalso receive Spring Belg. Rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than the main rainy season of the trade. Increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to,. Summer ; Belg: Spring ; bega: winter the interior highlands is very.. Subsequent sections temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively five-year. The sowing period for barley and wheat crops adaptation strategies need to be attempted, rain is but... At different levels of regional aggregation, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season showed a trend! Analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity projected to discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia very with... It could also increase the degree of resilience 12.69 to 13.32 C and to... Practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity in kiremit season, distribution!

Deaths In Palm Beach County This Week, Is Steve Carlton Married, Midwest Speed Softball, Car Accident Reports Summerville, Sc, Articles D